H-1B Weighted Lottery Odds Calculator

What are my H-1B odds when Level IV gets four entries?

List your candidates with the wage level their offered salary meets and whether they hold a US master's or higher. The page estimates each person's chance of selection under the weighted rule, compares it with the old flat lottery, and shows what one wage level higher is worth in points of probability.

The list is read in this browser tab and never leaves your device. These are planning estimates from a model of the draw and a pool you enter, not a USCIS result and not immigration advice. Confirm with an immigration attorney before deciding salaries or filings.

1. Your candidates

A CSV or pasted spreadsheet range with a header row. Columns: name, wage level (1-4 or I-IV), US master's or higher (yes/no).

Choose a CSV file …or paste the list

2. Your guess at the registration pool

USCIS publishes the real counts only after the season. The numbers below are illustrative, not data: replace them with your own estimate.

Level I registrations

Level II registrations

Level III registrations

Level IV registrations

Selected in the first draw

Extra selected in the advanced-degree draw

Share of registrations with a US master's or higher, percent

Choose a file or paste the list, then click Work out the odds.

How it works, and what it leaves out

Weights: Level I = 1 entry, II = 2, III = 3, IV = 4. Each registration is one beneficiary-registration pair.
Model: successive weighted draws without replacement are approximated by a chance of 1 - exp(-lambda x entries), with lambda solved so the expected selections match the number you enter. Close for pools this large; not a USCIS simulation.
Advanced-degree draw: unselected registrations for people with a US master's or higher are drawn again for the extra places, with the same weights.
Rules reviewed: 2026-10-06, by the author from the published final rule and USCIS pages, not by a lawyer. The rule, weights, caps and dates can change; check USCIS.
Not decided: whether a salary meets a wage level for a given occupation and area, eligibility, cap-exempt employers, the petition filing rate, fees, and whether a registration is valid.

Common questions

How does the H-1B weighted selection work?

Under the weighted rule, a registration is entered once for wage level I, twice for II, three times for III and four times for IV, based on the occupational wage level the offered salary meets. USCIS then draws from the weighted pool. This page models that draw; check USCIS for the current rule and dates.

What are my odds in the H-1B lottery?

They depend on the wage level and on how many registrations are in each level, which USCIS only publishes after the season. Enter your own estimate of the pool; the page solves for the selection chance of each level and shows the old flat chance for comparison. The default pool is illustrative, not data.

How is the master's cap handled?

Registrations for beneficiaries with a US master's or higher get a second chance: after the first draw, unselected advanced-degree registrations are drawn again for the extra advanced-degree places. The page models both stages with the share of advanced-degree registrations and the number of places you set.

Is this exact?

No. It uses a standard continuous approximation of successive weighted draws, which is close for pools this large but is not a USCIS simulation. Treat the figures as planning estimates, and expect the real pool mix to differ from your guess.

Is my candidate list uploaded anywhere?

No. It is read in your browser and nothing is sent; a test in the code asserts there are no network calls.