See whether a subscriber still beats a one-time checkout.
A 10% subscribe-and-save looks cheap next to a $54 ticket they
already wanted. The cheaper ticket and the billing fee sit on
every cycle. Skip and cancel cut the stay. A prepaid pack
collects more now and still ships every unit. The table keeps
the same SKU, then compares one-time, monthly, and prepaid.
Typical order and the subscription mix
One-time vs monthly vs prepaid
$—
Monthly keeps this much more than one-time
One-time leftover
Monthly lifetime leftover
Prepaid leftover
Monthly leftover if they pay
Paid cycles after skip
Monthly checkout
Prepaid checkout
Paid-cycle floor
Skip ceiling
Billing-fee ceiling
Monthly enroll-mix gap
Same SKU, three ways leftover lands
Path
Units
If they pay
Billing fee
Lifetime
vs one-time
The subscribe-and-save percent sits on the item. Shipping charged stays. Card fees sit on the cheaper ticket. The billing fee is the allocated Recharge, Skio, or Shopify Selling Plan line on that checkout — overwrite it from your app invoice. Prepaid is one swipe and one plan share for every packed unit. Transparent arithmetic from your inputs — not Shopify subscription policy.
What this checks
Merchants search “should I offer subscriptions on Shopify”
because a 10% subscribe-and-save looks cheap next to a $54
ticket they already wanted. The $4.80 still comes out of
leftover, and a 1% billing fee sits on every cycle. Skip and
cancel cut the stay. A prepaid pack collects more now.
On the defaults — $48 item, $6 shipping charged, $5.00 outbound,
Basic 2.9% + $0.30, $14 cost, $1 pack, $39 / 100 plan, 10%
monthly off, 15% prepaid off, 1% billing fee, 5 months stay,
20% skip, 25% enroll, 80 buyers — one-time keeps $31.74.
Monthly keeps $26.59 a paid cycle and $106.36 across 4.0 paid
cycles ($74.62 more). The prepaid 3-month pack keeps $74.23
($32.13 less than monthly, $42.49 more than one-time). Monthly
has to land about 1.2 paid cycles before it matches one-time.
Skip can rise to about 76.1% before monthly matches one-time.
The billing fee can rise to about 38.9% before monthly matches
one-time. A 25% enroll mix across 80 buyers keeps $1492.42 more
than selling every buyer one-time. After one paid cycle with no
skip, monthly keeps $26.59 against $31.74 one-time; a 20%
one-month prepaid keeps $21.98 and one-time wins. Raise skip to
80% and the prepaid pack keeps $74.23 against $26.59 monthly.
A subscriber who stays is worth more than one checkout even after a subscribe-and-save discount and a billing fee. On the calculator defaults ($48 item, $6 shipping, 2.9%+$0.30, $14 cost, $5 outbound, $1 pack, 10% monthly off, 15% prepaid off, 1% billing fee, 5 months stay, 20% skip) one-time keeps $31.74, monthly expects $106.36 across 4.0 paid cycles, and a prepaid 3-month pack keeps $74.23. That is arithmetic on your inputs, not advice to turn Recharge, Skio, or Shopify Selling Plans on.
When does a Shopify subscription lose to a one-time checkout?
When they do not stay long enough to cover the cheaper ticket. Monthly has to land about 1.2 paid cycles before it matches a $31.74 one-time leftover, and skip can rise to about 76.1% before monthly matches one-time. After one paid cycle with no skip, monthly keeps $26.59 against $31.74 one-time.
When does a prepaid Shopify subscription pack beat monthly?
When skip or cancel cuts monthly down to about one paid cycle. At an 80% skip rate monthly keeps $26.59 and the 3-month prepaid pack still keeps $74.23. The billing fee can rise to about 38.9% before monthly matches one-time on the default stay.