Rental arbitrage calculator: will a sublet Airbnb earn back its furniture? Free, private

Will a rental-arbitrage unit earn back its furniture before the lease ends?

Enter the rent, what you spend to furnish and set up, and your nightly rate and occupancy. You get profit in a steady month, break-even occupancy, the month furnishing is earned back, what the lease nets after ramp-up and resale, the occupancy and rate needed to net zero, and what a rent increase does.

It works from your own figures. It does not know what comparable listings charge, whether your lease allows subletting, or whether your city requires a permit.

Your unit

Monthly rent you pay the landlord, dollars

Utilities and internet per month, dollars

Other monthly costs: insurance, software, supplies stock, dollars

Security deposit (returned at the end), dollars

Furnishing cost: furniture, bedding, kitchen, TV, dollars

Other setup cost: photos, lock, smart devices, permit fee, dollars

What the furniture would resell for at the end, % of cost

Average nightly rate, dollars

Occupancy, % of nights booked

Average stay, nights

Cleaning fee guests pay per stay, dollars

What a turnover costs you: cleaner, laundry, restock, dollars

Supplies per occupied night, dollars

Booking-site commission, % of guest revenue

Months left on the lease

Ramp-up months before bookings settle

Occupancy during ramp-up, % of your steady figure

Fill in your unit, then click Work out the lease.

Result

If occupancy runs above or below plan

Versus plan	Occupancy	Profit per month	Net over the lease

If the landlord raises the rent

Rent increase	Rent	Profit per month	Net over the lease

What it does, and what it leaves to you

Counts: occupied nights per month = 365 / 12 x occupancy; stays = nights / average stay; guest revenue = nights x nightly rate + stays x cleaning fee; commission is a percent of guest revenue; profit = guest revenue - commission - (stays x turnover cost + nights x supplies) - rent - utilities - other monthly costs.
Over the lease: ramp-up months run at the share of steady occupancy you enter; net = the sum of monthly profit - furnishing - setup + resale value of the furniture. The deposit comes back, so it is cash at risk and not a cost. Earned back is the first month the running total covers furnishing and setup, with no resale counted.
Break-even occupancy is where a steady month earns zero. Net zero over the lease solves for the steady occupancy (or nightly rate) at which the whole lease nets zero. Both ignore growth in rates, seasonality and a lease renewal.
Not decided: whether your lease or your city allows short-term subletting, permits and registration, lodging and sales taxes (normally collected from guests and passed on), income tax, insurance quotes, your own time, damage and refunds, seasonality, and what comparable listings charge or how often they book.

Common questions

Is subletting an apartment on Airbnb legal?

It depends on your lease and your city. Many leases forbid subletting or short-term rental without the landlord's written consent, and many cities require a permit, a registration number or a primary-residence rule. This page does not know either, so check your lease and local rules before you spend on furniture.

How much does rental arbitrage make?

It depends entirely on your rent against what nights sell for. Enter your own rent, nightly rate and occupancy; the page works out the profit in a steady month, when furnishing and setup are earned back, and what is left over the months remaining on the lease.

What occupancy do I need to break even on a rental arbitrage unit?

Break-even occupancy is where a steady month earns zero after rent, utilities, other fixed costs, commission, turnovers and supplies. A second figure shows the occupancy needed to earn back furnishing and setup before the lease ends.

Why does the lease length matter?

Furniture and setup are a fixed spend you only earn back while you still hold the lease. The fewer months left, the higher the occupancy or rate you need. The page shows the net over the months you enter, with the deposit returned and any resale value you choose to count.

What if the landlord raises the rent?

The rent table shows monthly profit and the lease total at rent increases of 5% to 20%, so you can see how little room you have before the unit stops paying.

Is my data uploaded anywhere?

No. Everything is calculated in your browser and nothing is sent; a test in the code asserts there are no network calls.